Iran fired Sejjil hypersonic ballistic missiles for the first time in this conflict tonight. The S&P 500 closed its third straight week in the red at 6,632 — 5.3% below January's record of 7,002. The Federal Reserve meets in forty hours. Oil is above $100. Bitcoin is the only market open in the dark.
THE WEEK’S FINAL LEDGER · CLOSING PRICES · MARCH 7–13, 2026
IRAN · IRGC · OPERATION TRUE PROMISE 4 · WAVE 53 · MARCH 15, 2026
The IRGC launched the 53rd wave of Operation True Promise 4 on Sunday evening, deploying Sejjil solid-fuel ballistic missiles against U.S. and Israeli targets for the first time in the war. Sejjil is a two-stage solid-fueled missile with a range exceeding 2,000 km, a top speed of approximately Mach 8, and a launch preparation window measured in minutes — not hours.
Its solid-fuel design is the critical distinction from the liquid-fueled Shahab missiles Iran had previously relied on. Solid-fuel missiles can be launched with almost no warning. They offer no detectable fueling phase for satellites or reconnaissance aircraft to observe. Iran kept Sejjil in reserve for 15 days. The choice to deploy it tonight is a deliberate escalation signal.
Alongside the Sejjil deployment, the wave included hypersonic Fattah missiles, Khorramshahr-4 missiles with two-ton warheads, and over 200 drones targeting al-Dhafra Air Base in the UAE and Israeli military command centers. Sirens sounded across central Israel at 2:30 AM and 5:30 AM local time. Shrapnel was confirmed in Rishon Lezion, Ramle, and Bnei Brak. At least two people were injured.
Iran Foreign Minister Araghchi: "We will fight as long as it takes." President Trump, asked about ceasefire terms Sunday: "I'm not willing yet to make an agreement because the terms aren't good enough yet."
FEDERAL RESERVE · FOMC MARCH 18 · 40 HOURS AWAY
Market-implied probability of no rate change on March 18
Brent at $103 threatens PCE above 3.5% by summer. Oil is an inflationary tax on every household, firm, and supply chain. Cutting rates into this sends the wrong signal — and would likely accelerate inflation.
Q4 GDP revised to +0.7%. February payrolls: −92K. Consumer sentiment at 55.5 — the lowest of the year. Raising rates into a decelerating economy with geopolitical shock would be reckless.
The rate decision is a foregone conclusion. The dot plot is the event. Will the median FOMC member still project even one cut in 2026? With oil above $100 and core PCE at 3.1%, several hawks are expected to remove their projected cuts entirely. A "hawkish hold" — holding rates while signaling fewer future cuts — could send yields higher and equities lower even with no actual rate change.
Continuum Economics · FOMC Preview for March 18: Little change seen in either statement or dots
BRENT CRUDE · FRIDAY MARCH 13 CLOSE
Up 40% since the war began February 28. The Strait of Hormuz — through which 20–21 million barrels per day flowed before the war — is now processing 2–3 million barrels per day. The IEA's record 400-million-barrel strategic reserve release covers 26 days of the shortfall. Goldman Sachs sees $150 Brent if Kharg Island is struck.
S&P 500 · THE ACCOUNTING · JAN 28 ATH TO MARCH 13 CLOSE
The nine sectors that fell on Friday included technology, consumer discretionary, financials, and industrials. Energy was the sole gainer — up 2.5% on the session as oil topped $103. Alpine Macro estimates peak market panic is still 1–3 weeks away. The S&P is now down 3.1% year-to-date.
GOLD & BITCOIN · THE WAR HEDGE PARADOX · MARCH 2026
Gold rallied the day the war started.
Then it gave it all back — twice.
Rising yields are gold's kryptonite. As 10Y tops 4.28%, holding gold becomes more expensive relative to bonds. The war is inflationary — and that's cutting gold's safe-haven bid.
Bitcoin has absorbed war-era volatility better than gold. With $906M in spot ETF inflows during the week ending March 11, institutional demand is holding. JPMorgan: "Bitcoin more attractive than gold long-term."
WSJ · Comex Gold Ends the Week 1.82% Lower at $5,052.50 · March 13, 2026 · CoinDesk · Bitcoin Holds Above $71,000 Defying Rising Dollar, Oil and U.S. Bond Yields · March 13, 2026
U.S. AIRLINES · MONTH-TO-DATE · THE FUEL TAX IN ACTION
Benzinga · Airline Stocks Were Pricing 2026 Like A Runway — Oil Just Made It A Cliff Edge
U.S. CONSUMER · UMICH MARCH 2026 PRELIMINARY · STAGFLATION WATCH
The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index fell to 55.5 in the March 2026 preliminary reading — the lowest of the year and in the 2nd percentile of the series’ history dating back to 1978. Interviews conducted after the start of the Iran conflict erased all gains from earlier in the month. Gasoline prices emerged as the most immediate concern across all income levels, ages, and political affiliations.
Year-ahead inflation expectations ended six months of consecutive declines, stabilizing at 3.4%. Q4 2025 GDP was revised downward to 0.7%. February payrolls fell 92,000. The economic squeeze is hitting before the full oil shock has filtered through.
Advisor Perspectives · Consumer Sentiment Falls 2% to Lowest Reading of 2026 · March 13, 2026
GLOBAL MARKETS · OVERNIGHT SETUP · WHAT OPENS BEFORE WALL STREET
AP News · US stocks lose ground as war with Iran keeps pressure on oil prices · March 13, 2026
U.S. TREASURIES · 10-YEAR YIELD · STAGFLATION SIGNAL
The 10-year Treasury yield closed Friday at 4.285% — up 31 basis points since late February's low of 3.97%. The ICE BofA Treasury volatility index (MOVE) hit a nine-month high. The bond market is simultaneously pricing rising inflation (from oil) and slower growth (from the war shock) — the worst combination for a central bank.
The 60/40 portfolio — long considered the all-weather allocation — is getting hit from both sides: equities falling, bonds falling. Mortgage rates are pushing back toward 7%. The 2-year Treasury holds near 4.0%, keeping the curve in a tenuous near-flat configuration.
THE WEEK AHEAD · MARCH 16–19, 2026 · CATALYST CALENDAR
Sejjil launched. Trump rejects ceasefire. Futures begin pricing the weekend. Bitcoin at $71,184 — only market open.
First equity session pricing the weekend. Airlines, consumer disc. expected to gap lower. Energy, defense stocks expected higher. FOMC blackout period — no Fed commentary.
Retail sales data will confirm or deny consumer retrenchment thesis. FOMC meeting convenes behind closed doors for Day 1 of two-day deliberation.
Fed holds at 3.50–3.75% — virtual certainty. The dot plot reveals whether the projected 2026 cuts survive $103 oil. Powell's press conference at 2:30 PM. May be his final one before his May 15 term expires.
BoJ, ECB, SNB, BoE — all expected to hold. All navigating the same oil shock the Fed is confronting. ECB at 2.00%, BoE at 3.75%, BoJ at 0.75%, SNB at 0.00%.
CNBC · Stock Market Next Week: Outlook for March 16–20, 2026 · March 13, 2026