The strip is live.Wall Street is not.

Economists warn March payrolls arrived before the war’s full labor-market invoice.

The establishment survey largely covers the first half of March; Reuters quoted Fifth Third’s Bill Adams that the report “tells us next to nothing about the Iran war’s impact on the job market.” That gap is the tension futures traders are pricing through the weekend.

One hundred seventy-eight thousand jobs — the rebound that reset Fed chatter.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March after a downwardly revised 133,000-job drop in February, per the Labor Department via Reuters — the biggest increase in 15 months and the largest since President Trump returned to the White House.

Unemployment fell to 4.3% as participation dropped below 62% for the first time since COVID.

Reuters reported the jobless rate dipped from 4.4% in February as 396,000 people left the labor force. The participation rate fell to 61.9%. The same story noted average hourly earnings up 3.5% year-on-year — the slowest pace since May 2021.

Howard Schneider: resilient hiring likely keeps the FOMC on hold while energy scrambles the outlook.

Reuters reported the Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight rate in the 3.50% to 3.75% range last month; in a shortened Good Friday session, Treasury yields rose on the jobs data and rate futures priced almost no chance of cuts this year. Inflation data for March is due the following Friday — another input before the April 28–29 meeting.

WTI leaped 11.41% to $111.54; Brent added 7.78% to $109.03 after Trump’s war message.

Reuters said U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose $11.42, or 11.41%, to $111.54 per barrel on Thursday, while Brent settled $7.87 higher at $109.03. Both benchmarks remained below highs near $120 touched earlier in the conflict.

Near-month WTI traded at a record premium to deferred barrels — backwardation on parade.

Reuters reported WTI crude futures for May delivery traded as much as $16.70 per barrel above the June contract during Thursday’s session, with May reaching a session high of $113.97 before settling. The story frames backwardation as traders paying up for immediate barrels while the Hormuz disruption persists.

Trump’s Hormuz frustration pushed NATO into what analysts call its weakest moment in generations.

Reuters reported that European reluctance to send navies to reopen the Strait after the February 28 air war led President Trump to say he is considering quitting NATO — and that U.S. officials argue the alliance cannot be a “one-way street.” Secretary-General Rutte was expected in Washington the following week to try to steady ties.

Taipei secures LNG assurances; New Delhi confirms Iranian crude purchases after seven years away.

Taiwan’s economy minister said Saturday that a major LNG-producing country’s energy minister pledged support for natural gas needs amid Qatar disruption. Separately, India’s oil ministry said refiners secured crude including from Iran with “no payment hurdle,” citing a cargo of 44,000 metric tons of LPG discharged at Mangalore on Wednesday.

Senegal’s prime minister cited ~$115 oil versus a $62 budget assumption — and froze ministerial travel.

Reuters reported Prime Minister Ousmane Sonko suspended non-essential foreign travel for ministers, warning of extremely difficult times as the Iran war and Hormuz closure roil budgets. He pointed to oil near $115 a barrel against $62 baked into projections.

Five EU finance ministers asked the Commission for a windfall tax as gas prices surged more than 70% since the war began.

In a letter dated Friday seen by Reuters on Saturday, Germany, Italy, Spain, Portugal and Austria said firms profiting from war-driven energy spikes should help ease household burdens — echoing the bloc’s 2022 crisis toolkit.

Iraq closed the Shalamcheh crossing with Iran after strikes killed an Iraqi citizen, security sources said.

Reuters reported Saturday that airstrikes on the Iranian side hit a passenger reception area, killing one Iraqi and seriously wounding at least five others; border authorities halted trade and travelers.

Two U.S. warplanes downed; Trump threatened bridges and power plants; Kuwait reported refinery drone damage.

Reuters said Friday that Iranian fire brought down an F-15E over Iran and hit an A-10 near Kuwait, with one crew member still sought inside Iran. The same dispatch noted Trump’s social posts promising strikes on bridges and power plants, and Kuwait Petroleum Corporation reporting its Mina al-Ahmadi refinery hit by drones.

Reuters also cited 13 U.S. service members killed and more than 300 wounded in the conflict to date, per U.S. Central Command.