Since the Midday edition, the tape kept building on de-escalation headlines: crude turned sharply lower while equities pressed higher into the cash close. The month still goes down as one of the ugliest stretches for the broad market since 2022 — today was salvage, not reset.
Arithmetic check: (6,496 − 6,343.72) ÷ 6,343.72 ≈ 2.40% — aligns Mon.→Tue.; Moneycheck also cites ~+2.7% session gain.
Moneycheck · Dow +1,061 pts · S&P ~6,496 · Nasdaq ~21,517 · March 31, 2026 AP News · Prior session index levels (Monday 3/30)One closing snapshot put the Dow up about 1,061 points (~2.4%) near 46,140, the S&P 500 near 6,496 (Moneycheck cites ~+2.7% for the session; vs Monday’s AP close of 6,343.72 that is ~+2.4%), and the Nasdaq Composite up 3.4% near 21,517 — a sharp contrast to Monday’s red finish for the S&P and Nasdaq.
The Associated Press described a rebound keyed first to The Wall Street Journal reporting that President Trump told aides he is willing to end the U.S. military campaign against Iran even if the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed — followed by a sharp crude reversal after Middle East reporting quoted Iran’s president on the “necessary will” to end the war subject to guarantees.
“Donald Trump willing to end war without reopening Strait of Hormuz, says Wall Street Journal.”
AP’s session file: Brent crude fell 3.2% to settle at $103.97 per barrel; benchmark U.S. crude eased 1.5% to $101.38. That helped airlines and cruise lines trim year-to-date damage even as the war premium lingers in the background.
AP News · Brent & WTI settlements · March 31, 2026 AP News · Middle East energy / crude contextThe Labor Department said job vacancies fell to 6.9 million in February from 7.2 million in January. The ring shows February openings as a share of January’s level (6.9 ÷ 7.2 ≈ 95.8%).
Versus 7.2 million prior month · JOLTS Tuesday release.
AAA put the national average for a gallon of regular at $4.02 Tuesday — up more than a dollar since before the war began. The meter maps how far above a $3.00 psychological floor that print sits.
National average vs. $3.00 reference (visual scale only).
Futures firmed on reports Trump could end the campaign without a fully open Hormuz.
AP tied the move to Middle East reporting on Iran’s president and conditions for ending hostilities.
Nvidia and a Marvell rally on Nvidia’s $2B investment were among the strongest S&P lifts in AP’s file.
Dow Jones Newswires (via Morningstar) captured early Tuesday moves: DXY eased 0.1% to 100.455 after an overnight high, 2-year Treasuries yielded 3.806%, 10-year 4.322%, and Bitcoin traded near $67,362.
−0.1% · high 100.643
+1.2% early · DJNW
Marvell Technology rallied after Nvidia invested $2 billion and announced a partnership; Nvidia rose 5.3% and was the single biggest lift to the S&P 500 in AP’s dispatch — with an hour left in the session.
+44.1% Centessa Pharmaceuticals — Eli Lilly acquisition, up to $7.8B if milestones met+3.5% Eli Lilly — buyer in the Centessa deal+6.5% Norwegian Cruise Line — fuel-cost relief on lower oil+7.7% United Airlines — same tailwind−6.1% McCormick — Unilever food business purchase complexityFrom 4.35% Monday close and 4.44% end of last week — AP described it as a significant move for bonds. The same file noted the 10-year sat at 3.97% in late February before war-driven inflation trades erased Fed-cut bets.
AP tied the energy shock to faster European inflation — 2.5% year-over-year in March versus 1.9% in February — a reminder that the war’s pass-through is global even when U.S. stocks bounce.
2.5% eurozone HICP YoY · March
TechStock²’s session wrap, citing Reuters, noted the VIX dropped almost three points to 27.68 — back under 30 — and quoted Siebert Financial CIO Mark Malek: the move reflects what traders want to hear about a quick resolution, even if oil remains dangerous.
27.68
~−3 pts session move · under 30 again
“The move in markets is reflecting what traders want to see, what they hear.”
— Mark Malek, Siebert Financial CIO (via Reuters pick-up)
March is in the books; Q2 positioning starts under the same Hormuz question. Use this lane for the next catalysts (all times ET).
Watch Nikkei, Kospi, and crude for any reversal of Tuesday’s risk-on drift — tanker headlines remain live risk.
Private payrolls preview with Friday’s official jobs report distorted by the Good Friday holiday calendar.
First hard U.S. inventory read after another session of war-premium repricing.
Any hawkish pushback on energy-driven inflation still matters for the front end of the curve.
Positions may front-run; AP noted economists look for ~60K net adds after February’s weak print.