The closing bell rang on the worst week in U.S. markets since the Strait of Hormuz seized shut on February 28. PCE inflation cooperated. The market didn't care. Friday the 13th delivered exactly what the calendar implied.
The S&P 500 dropped from 7,381 on its February 19 record to 6,572 today — a 10.8% decline that officially qualifies as a market correction. The index closed at its lowest level since mid-November 2025, with the next technical support at 6,500.
The International Energy Agency called this "the most significant supply shock in the history of the global oil market" and authorized member nations to release 400 million barrels from emergency stockpiles. Analysts now model a path to $150 if the Strait remains closed through April.
AP News ↗The Fed's preferred inflation gauge printed exactly at consensus, offering the first glimmer of relief in weeks. Markets rallied briefly at the open — then reversed. The PCE beat was drowned out within 20 minutes by a fresh leg higher in crude. The data was good. The context was catastrophic.
Recognition.
Reparations.
Guarantees.
The Iranian president's three-word framework presents the first formal ceasefire conditions since the conflict began February 28. Washington has not formally responded. Separately, new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei stated the Strait "must remain closed as leverage." The two statements are in direct contradiction with each other.
Al Jazeera ↗Markets price a 92% probability that the Federal Reserve holds rates at its March meeting — now just four days away. Despite oil-driven inflation fears, the FOMC is expected to stand pat, citing data-dependency and the unique supply-side nature of the oil shock. Only 20 basis points of cuts are priced for all of 2026.
Shantanu Narayen will step down after 18 years atop Adobe. He beat every estimate. His stock fell anyway. Barclays cut ADBE to Equalweight and slashed its price target to $275 from $335, citing AI disruption risk and leadership transition uncertainty. The irony: Adobe's own AI-first ARR tripled year-over-year.
Benzinga ↗Morgan Stanley capped redemptions on its $2.2 billion North Haven Private Income Fund after investors sought to pull 11% of units in a single quarter. Only 45.8% of requests were honored — the remainder must wait. BlackRock and Blackstone disclosed similar restrictions in the same filing period. The $1.8-trillion private credit market is now stress-testing whether its semi-liquid structures can handle a real macro shock.
U.S. Treasury Secretary Bessent's comments on inflation — that oil-driven CPI would be "transient" and limited in duration — knocked crude $2/barrel and sparked a crypto rally. Bitcoin ETFs saw $568M in inflows last week. The decoupling from equities is the week's most surprising data point.
Economic Times ↗While the broader market broke down, CF Industries Holdings reached an all-time high of $132.60 on Thursday. The fertilizer giant — which produces nitrogen from natural gas — is a direct beneficiary of the global oil shock: energy inputs cost more, making existing fertilizer supply more valuable and driving agricultural inflation fears.
The Hormuz crisis threatens global food security as well as energy. With fertilizer production tied to natural gas prices, food commodity futures are following oil higher. CF Industries is the canary — and right now, it's singing.
AInvest ↗The FOMC meets Tuesday with 92% probability of a hold. But Powell's press conference will be closely parsed for any signal on how the Fed views oil-driven inflation vs. slowing growth — and whether Warsh's incoming tenure changes the calculus.
Markets are already repricing for the Warsh era: a known hawk with vocal concerns about the Fed's balance sheet and its dual mandate interpretation. With Trump demanding "immediate" rate cuts and Warsh historically skeptical of QE, the May transition could create its own volatility event — independent of whether the oil crisis resolves.
CNBC ↗